季节性冻融区地下水位预测方法研究

Predicting Change of Groundwater Table in Seasonal Permafrost

为预测河套灌区冻融区全年地下水位变化过程,采用统计学方法,研究了冻融期地下水位与地表气温间的关系,建立了二者间的线性模型,结合非冻融期水量均衡模型,建立了改进型水量均衡模型,通过优化求解方法确定模型参数。结果表明,模型计算埋深与实测埋深拟合效果较好,提出的改进型水量均衡模型可较好地预测冻融区全年地下水位变化过程,解决了冻融期间地下水模拟难题,方法简单精确,具有很好的实用性。

This paper proposed a statistical model to predict groundwater table in seasonal permafrost in Hetao Ir- rigation District of Inner Mongolia. We linked the groundwater table to surface air temperature, and a linear rela- tionship was found between them based on long-term experimental data. This, incombination with a water bal- ance model for non-frozen seasons, provided a modified model to analyze water balance in permafrost. The mod- el parameters were obtained by optimization using data measured in both frozen and non-frozen seasons. Compar- isons between calculated and measured groundwater tables showed that the proposed model is able to predict change of groundwater table in both freezing and thawing seasons reasonably well. The model is simple and accu- rate for practical applications.