京沪高速铁路客流空间分布预测方法研究

Study on Forecast Methods of Passenger Flow Spatial Distribution for Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway

为准确预测高速铁路站间OD客流,采用时间和空间预测相结合的预测方法,首先构建高速铁路发到量的灰度预测模型,然后将预测结果应用于双约束重力模型预测高速铁路站间OD客流量。以京沪高速铁路为例,基于2012—2015年发送量和到达量的历史数据建立灰度预测模型,预测2016年京沪高速铁路的发送量和到达量,再根据2015年京沪高速铁路24个车站的OD客流数据拟合出双约束重力模型,进而预测2016年各站间OD客流分布情况。结果表明,时间和空间预测相结合的预测方法可以应用于高速铁路客流空间分布预测。

In order to accurately forecast the OD passenger flow in the stations, a forecasting method combining time forecast with spatial forecast is applied, which means, firstly establish a grey forecast model for high-speed railway departure-receiving volume, and then, apply the forecast result in the double restraint gravitational model so as to forecast the OD passenger flow among the stations. Taking Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, the grey forecast model is established based on the historical data of departure and receiving volume in 2012-2015, and the departure and receiving volume of the railway in 2016 is made forecast, and then double restraint gravitational model is fitted according to the OD passenger flow data of 24 stations on the railway in 2015, thus the status of OD passenger flow distribution among stations in 2016 is made forecast. The result shows the forecasting method combining with time and spatial forecast could be applied in the forecast of passencler flow spatial distribution of high-speed railways.