宁波市县交通客流分担率预测及影响因素分析

Analysis on Forecast and Influence Factors of Passenger Flow Share Ratio of Ningbo City and County Traffic

为掌握市县交通旅客出行特点,合理规划市县都市交通圈建设,提升都市圈同城效用水平,推动区域经济发展,在概述市县交通出行方式及其影响因素的基础上,构建基于Logit模型的市县交通客流分担率预测模型,采用SPSS软件中的多项Logit回归模型进行检验和求解。以宁波市县交通为例,基于市县交通客流分担率Logit预测模型对宁波市至5个县级市的市县交通客流分担率进行预测,并对宁波市县交通出行方式选择的影响因素进行敏感性分析,经验证预测结果与实际相符。

In order to grasp the passengers＇ travel characteristics in cities and counties, reasonably plan the construction of city and county traffic circle, increase the city utility level in the metropolitan area and promote regional economic development, on the basis of summarizing travel modes of city and county traffic, analyzing its influence factors, and using Logit model, the forecast model of passenger flow share ratio of city and county traffic is established, and the forecast model is verified and solved by using SPSS software＇s multinomial Logit regression model. Taking Ningbo city and its county traffic as an example, this paper makes a forecast of passenger flow share ratio from Ningbo to 5 county-level cities based on Logit forecast model of passenger flow share ratio of city and county traffic, and makes sensitivity analyses on the travel modes and influence factors of Ningbo city and county traffic. The validation result is proved corresponding to the actual status.