上海入境旅游市场的季节特征、波动周期与发展趋势——基于X-12-ARIMA和HP滤波法

On the Seasonal Characteristics,Fluctuation Cycle and Development Trendsof Shanghai's Inbound Tourist Market:Based on X-12-ARIMA and HP Filter Methods

旅游客源市场具有月度和季节波动特征，且对地区旅游业持续发展有重要影响。以上海2004—2015年（香港、澳门、台湾及国外）入境游客月度数据为分析依据，基于X-12-ARIMA模型对上海入境旅游市场的季节因素、不规则因素及趋势循环因素给予分解与研究，并运用HP滤波法分析了上海4类入境旅游市场的波动周期与发展趋势。结果表明：（1）上海入境客源市场均受干湿、冷热等季节因素影响，且影响大小依次为澳门〉香港〉外国〉台湾；（2）各类型旅沪市场的季节形态存在差异，外国市场呈“两峰两谷”的变化形态，港、台市场则呈“三峰三谷”的季节特征，而澳门市场峰谷较多，呈“四峰四谷”的波动态势。（3）上海入境市场受不规则因素大小影响依次为澳门〉香港〉台湾〉外国，且对2003年“非典”、2008～2009年金融危机、2010年“世博”等不规则事件表现具有差异。（4）港、澳、台与外国旅沪市场在2004～2015年均可分为12个月度小周期，且4类入境市场总体呈波动上升的发展趋势。在此基础上，本文从旅游产品体系、危机管理体制、客源市场营销等维度提出缓解上海入境旅游季节性矛盾，增强偶发性事件应对能力的相关策略。

Tourism market not only has monthly and seasonal fluctuationscharacteristics, but also has an important influence on the sustainable development of regional tourism. Based on the monthly data of Shanghai＇ s inbound tourist markets （from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and abroad） from 2004 to 2015, this paper enquired and decomposedShanghai＇ s inbound touristmarkets into the seasonal factors, irregular factors and trend cycle factors by applying the X-12-ARIMAmodel, and used HP filtermethod to analyze the fluctuation cycle and the development tendency of four types of Shanghai ＇ s inbound tourist markets. The result shows that the four types of Shanghai＇ s inbound tourist markets are affected by seasonal factors, such as temperature, humidity, heat or cold. The impact of seasonal factors running from the most to the least is Macao, Hong Kong, Foreign, and Taiwansegment ; （2） Each type of inbound tourist markets has different seasonal patterns： Foreign market presentsa＂ two peaks and two valleys＂ form; Hong Kong and Taiwan markets show a ＂three peaks and three valleys＂ seasonal characteristic, and Macao market appears a ＂four peaks four valleys＂ fluctuation trend;（3 ） The extent of impact of the uncertain factors is in the order of Foreign, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and each of these inbound markets shows discrepancy on accidental incidents, such as ＂SARS＂ in 2003, financial crisis during 2008-2009, and ＂expo＂ in 2010; （4） Each type of Shanghai＇ s inbound tourist market can be divided into 12 monthly small cycles from 2004 to 2015. Besides, the four types of inbound tourist markets as a whole are taking on the rising trend generally. On this basis, some relevant strategies are putted forward from the dimensions of tourism product system, crisis management mechanism, and tourism marketing, in order to mitigate the seasonality contradictory and strengthen the response capacity on accidental events.