武汉市2020年机动车常规污染物排放预测及减排潜力分析研究

Projection of Motor Vehicles Normal Pollutants and Controlling Measures until 2020

采用情景分析方法预测武汉市"十三五"期间不同情景下机动车保有量和主要污染物(NOx、CO、VOCs、PM10和PM2.5)排放量,同时进行减排潜力的初步核算。结果表明:在不淘汰黄标及老旧车辆的情况下,预计2020年武汉市机动车保有量将增长至352.5万辆,机动车排放NO_x、CO、VOCs、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)约为6.6万吨、13.5万吨、4.0万吨、0.2万吨和0.2万吨。"十三五"期间采取结构减排、工程减排及管理减排方案措施后,2020年机动车排放NO_x、VOCs、CO、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)可在2015年的排放基础上分别减排0.51%、43.17%、40.74%、38.99%和38.45%。

This paper presents the scenario forecast of Wuhan motor vehicle population and normal pollutants （ NOx, CO, VOCs, PM10 and PM2.5 ） emissions until 2020. Pollutants emissions reduction under different control strategies and policies are also assessed in this study. Vehicle population of Wuhan is predicted increasing to 352. 5 million without regarding to elimination of heavy- polluting vehicles until 2020. NOx, VOCs, CO, PM10, and PM2.5 emissions will increase to 66 thousand, 135 thousand, 40 thousand,2 thousand and 2 thousand. Structure reduce measures, project reduce measures and management reduce measures of vehicle pollution prevention are supposed to be taken during 13th Five Year Plan period in Wuhan. It will bring 0. 51% ,43. 17% ,40. 74% ,38.99% and 38. 45% reductions of NOx, VOCs, CO, PM10, and PM2.5 emissions respectively.