改革开放以来我国对外贸易对经济增长的贡献分析

ANALYSIS ON THE CONTRIBUTION OF FOREIGN TRADE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA SINCE THE REFORM AND OPENING UP

改革开放以来,进出口贸易的快速发展成为促进经济增长的重要因素.从实证分析角度,通过对我国1978-2014年进出口对经济增长的弹性、贡献度及拉动度分析,并利用Eviews7.2中的协整理论及Granger因果关系检验的方法,对中国进出口贸易和经济增长间的关系进行分析,并利用OLS分析得出其协整回归方程.结果表明:进口贸易与出口贸易均对经济增长起到一定的拉动作用,就此对进出口贸易提出合理的对策和建议.

Since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of import and export trade has become an important factor in promoting economic growth. From the perspective of empirical study, based on China＇s 1978- 2014 import and export of elasticity, economic growth contribution and pulling degree analysis, and using the meth- od of EviewsT.2 cointegration theory and Granger causality test, the relationship between export trade and economic growth are analyzed, the OLS analysis of the cointegration regression equation are obtained using OLS analysis. The results show that both the import and export trade have a role in boosting the economic growth, and the mutual in- teraction of the two will contribute to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. This paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to the import and export trade.