新疆人口发展与长治久安关系探析

Integration or Separation:A Discussion on Relations between the Population and Long-term Stability of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region——Based on the Differences in Population Growth between Han and Uyghur Ethnic Group

新疆是我国五个少数民族自治区之一,是我国重要的战略节点。新疆的和平稳定关系着全国和谐发展的大局。本文通过分析新疆维汉人口在自然、社会以及地域方面表现出的差异以及变动趋势来窥见新疆民族发展的问题和趋向。分析发现,维汉两族人口同质性在不断减弱,人口异质性在不断扩大。我们认为维汉人口同质性发展孕育了地区和平稳定发展的密码,而维汉两族人口异质性的不断扩大其实质蕴藏着民族分裂、社会不稳的风险。促进族群人口协同发展、融合发展和平衡发展对新疆的长治久安有重要意义。

As one of the five ethnic minority autonomous regions, Xinjiang has become a critical location of strategic significance in China. The long-term stability of Xinjiang will place great impact on the sustainable development of China. The paper studies the challenges and future development of Uyghur ethnic group by analyzing its natural, social and regional differences compared with Han ethnic group. The study shows that the gap between two ethnic groups has been widened. Since the stability of Han and Uyghur ethnic group largely relies on its common ground in population development, the huge difference may lead to ethnic separatist activities and social unrest of two ethnic groups. The study has vital significance in seeking coordinated development of the population and long-term stability of Xinjiang.