中国城镇居民高等教育收益率及变动趋势实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Return to Higher Education of Human Capital and its Changing Trend in Urban China

基于中国居民收入项目调查提供的CHIP数据,利用明瑟收益方程,采用Heckman两阶段样本选择模型,实证探讨了高等教育大众化对城镇居民教育收益的影响。研究发现:教育水平与个体收入间存在着正相关,城镇居民受教育程度的逐级增长推动着个体收入水平的提高;由于样本选择偏差与遗漏变量的存在,致使OLS对教育收益的估计,存在着向上与向下两种情形的估计偏误,控制性别、民族、行业性质等个体特征差异后,城镇居民的整体教育收益率由大众化前的19%,增至大众化后的37.8%;高教规模扩张带来的劳动力市场持续供给,并未引致高等教育的私人收益率下降,大学教育收益率由13.9%上升到了16.43%;工作经验的积累、人职匹配以及进入劳动力市场的时间顺延,是研究生人力资本收益率略微回落至12.23%的动因。在此基础上提出了实现研究生教育收益最大化的政策建议。

Based on the CHIP data provided by the survey of income of residents in China and using Mincer equation and Heckman two stage sample selection model, this paper studies the return on education of human capital and its changing trend in urban China. It is indicated that there is a positive correlation between income and education, the gradual increase in education level of urban residents is driving the improvement of individual’s income level; sample selection bias and missing variables which lead to downward and upward estimation bias of the return to education by OLS, after controlling individual differences in gender, nationality, industry nature, etc, the overall rate of return on education for urban residents increased from 19% to 37. 8% after popularization of higher education; the continuing supply of labor market brought by the expansion of higher education hasn’t caused the decline of private benefits of higher education, the rate of return on university education rose from 13. 9% to 16.4 3 % ; the rate of return on human capital of postgraduate education is slightly down to 12.23% which is caused by the accumulation of experience, job matching and delay entering into the labor market. On this basis, this paper put forward some policy recommendations to maximize the income of postgraduate education.