基于三次指数平滑模型的雾霾天气预测

Prediction of Haze Weather based on Cubic Exponential Smoothing Model

通过分析郑州市2013—2016年空气质量指数月统计数据,可以看出空气质量指数(AQI)、PM_(2.5)、SO_2等指标均关于时间呈非线性趋势。应用三次指数平滑模型对郑州市2017年每月的AQI、PM_(2.5)、SO_2等指标进行预测。结果表明,郑州市2017年雾霾天气与实际季节变化相符,且呈"U"型分布。

Through analyzing monthly data of Zhengzhou from 2013 to 2016, observed a nonlinear trend of the air quality indices such as AQI, PM2. 5 , SO2, etc. Therefore, the cubic exponential smo-othing model was applied to forecast the monthly AQI, PM2. 5 , SO2 of Zhengzhou in 2017. It showed that the appearance of the haze weather was consistent with the change of actual seasonal, and was distributed by ＂U＂ type in 2017.