平衡财政约束下最优国债规模与利率

Optimal Scale and Rate of Government Bond under the Balance Restrain

2015年上半年资本价格暴跌反映出当前货币政策拉动中国经济复苏的乏力,需要以供给侧改革为指导的积极财政政策刺激经济的发展。国债作为积极财政政策的重要融资手段,如何在风险可控的条件下充分发挥其对经济增长的积极作用成为当下急需解决的问题。本文突破了以往在国债发行总量研究中单一注重风险控制或者经济效应的局限性,并在无限期界框架下建立理论模型,得到了从政府决策角度出发的国债规模-产出关系式。在此基础上,通过经济传导机制与决策机制反向逻辑关系的对偶转换,得出国债规模、国债利率在政府平衡预算约束下对经济总产出的影响公式。基于此公式展开实证分析得到:我国国债余额规模略高于最优规模但保持着同步变动的趋势;国债利率波动较大,最优利率水平在3.1%上下波动;国债规模应当保持相当增速以配合积极财政政策在中短期内激活经济发展动力,而在长期角度应当警惕其风险累积。

In the first half of 2015, the collapse of capital prices reflected the weakness of the current monetary policy in stimulating China＇s economic recovery. It seemed that the positive fiscal policy of supply side reform was very necessary, and the government bond could play an important role. This paper breaks through the limitation of primary focus on the risk control or economic effect in the study of bond issuing amount, and establishes a theoretical model in the framework of an indefinite period. Through the dual transformation of the economic transmission mechanism and the reverse logic relationship of the decision- making mechanism, we can get the influence of the national debt scale and the government bond interest rate on the total economic output under the balanced budget constraint. The empirical analysis shows that China＇s national debt balance scale is slightly higher than the optimal size, interest rate fluctuates, the optimal interest rate is around 3.1%, and the scale of government bonds should maintain a growth in cooperation with the positive fiscal policy to activate the power of economic development in the short term, but in the long term the government should be aware of the accumulation risk.