国债规模与中国经济增长：基于省级面板的阈值固定效应分析

Public Debts and Economic Growth of China:The Myth of Nonlinear Effects

一直以来,国债规模对于经济增长是正向促进作用还是反向抑制作用都是学界争论的问题之一,同样地,政府方面也需要根据实际情况选择适合国情的国债规模。本文运用中国30个省级行政单位2001-2014年间的数据,采用面板估计模型和阈值固定效应估计模型,实证分析了中国国债和经济增长的关系。得出在目前中国国债水平较低的情况下,中国国债规模现阶段并未表现出明显的阈值,即国债规模与经济增长没有一个显著的非线性关系。进一步,线性模型的分析结果显示,我国国债规模在现阶段对经济增长未呈现出显著的抑制作用。

It has been a debated issue about whether public debts have a nonlinear effect on economic growth. Using a nationwide province-level dataset for the years 2001-2014 in China and different identification strategies including nonlinear threshold model and linear fixed effects model, this paper analyzes the potential links between the scale of public debts and economic growth. We find that there is no significant threshold effect of public debts on economic growth in China. By exploiting the static linear fixed effects model, we further find that the current scale of public debts does not seem to restrain the economic growth in China.