宏观经济、保险制度变迁与保险业增长

Macroeconomy,Insurance Institutional Change and Insurance Growth

本文选择宏观经济、保险制度变迁与保险业增长之间的互动机理为研究对象,运用VAR模型实证检验1982~2015年宏观经济、保险制度变迁以及保险业增长的关系,研究分析后得出:宏观经济、保险制度变迁与保险业增长相互机理关系中,保险制度变迁处于核心地位,发挥主导作用;宏观经济对保险业增长和保险制度变迁有贡献程度不高的正效应,保险业发展更多的依赖保险制度变迁;保险业增长对宏观经济增长贡献度尚未完全凸显等结论。为宏观经济发展、保险制度建设与保险业增长,提供了一定理论基础和现实指导。

This paper analyzed the interaction mechanism among macro economy, insurance institutional change and insurance industry growth, using the VAR model with 1982 -2015 data to empirically identify their relation- ship. The study showed that, among the three factors, insurance institutional changes occupied the core position and played the key role;macroeconomy played a positive, but not significant, effect on insurance growth and insurance institutional change, which meant that insurance development relied more on the insurance institutional change;in- surance growth＇ s contribution to macroeconomic growth had not been quite visible. The research can provide a the- oretical basis and practical guidance for the macro economic development, insurance institutional construction and the insurance industry growth.