宏观经济不确定性与银行个人住房贷款供给行为

Macroeconomic Uncertaintyand Supply Behavior of Individual Housing Mortgage Loan

本文从三个层面分析宏观经济不确定性对银行个人住房贷款供给行为的影响,研究发现,宏观经济不确定性不仅影响银行资产组合和风险资产组合中个人住房贷款的供给行为,而且显著影响银行个人住房贷款增长率。当宏观经济不确定性上升时,银行个人住房贷款/资产、个人住房贷款/总贷款横截面分布的方差都显著变小,个人住房贷款增长率显著增加。上述结论表明,宏观经济不确定性上升会导致银行个人住房贷款供给行为出现扭曲,表现出显著的羊群效应,结果是个人住房贷款增长率显著上升,信贷资源过度集中于个人住房贷款。

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the supply behavior of individual housing mortgage loans is studied from three aspects. The results show that macroeconomic uncertainty not only affects the supply behavior of individual housing mortgage loans in bank portfoliosand the supply behavior of individual housing loans in the portfolio of risky assets, but also has a significant impact on the growth rate of individual housing mortgage loans. When the macroeconomic uncertainty increases, banks behave more conservatively, leading to narrowing cross-sectional distributions of banks of individual housing mortgage loan-to-asset ratios and individual housing mortgage loan-to-total loans ratios, and the growth rate of individual housing mortgage loan increases significantly.The empirical results indicate that higher macroeconomic uncertainty leads to distortion of individual housing mortgage loan supply behavior, and herding behavior tends to emerge. As a result, the growth rate of individual housing mortgage loan has increased significantly, and credit resources have been excessive focus on individual housing mortgage loan.