基于Monte Carlo的新鲜水果和茶叶中稀土元素的风险评估

Risk assessment of rare earth elements in fresh fruit and tea by Monte Carlo simulation

目的开展新鲜水果和茶叶中稀土元素的定量风险评估研究。方法应用基于Monte Carlo模拟的@risk5.7专业风险评估软件模拟可能出现的结果,选择风险商进行表征,最终应用风险商的定量数值来描述通过食用新鲜水果和饮用茶水途径摄入稀土元素的膳食风险。结果普通居民通过食用新鲜水果和饮用茶水途径摄入稀土元素的风险商平均值以及各百分位数风险商均小于1。结论居民仅通过食用新鲜水果和饮用茶水途径摄入稀土元素的膳食暴露并不存在健康风险,但仍需要加强对环境中稀土元素的监控,对个别消费量较高的居民给予正确引导,防止因过量食用而产生的不良后果,从而进一步降低居民通过食用新鲜水果和饮用茶叶途径摄入稀土元素的膳食风险水平。

Objective To assess and quantify the risk of rare earth elements via intake of fresh fruit and tea.Method Based on the application of@risk 5.7 software of Monte Carlo simulation,the risk quotient was selected to characterize the dietary risk of rare earth elements through consuming fresh fruit and tea.Results The risk quotient and the percentile risk of rare earth elements in general population through intake of fresh fruit and tea were less than 1.Conclusion The dietary exposure of rare earth elements only from fresh fruit and tea consumption is impossible to bring about severe health risk for general population.But the monitoring of rare earth elements in environment should be reinforced.The higher consumption of individual residents should be given the right guidance to further reduce the dietary rare earth elements risk level of the general population.