技术进步对中国经济效率和最终需求的影响研究——基于1992-2012年投入产出表的实证

The Influence of Technological Progress to the Economic Efficiency and Final Demand——Based on the Empirical Study of Input-output Tables in 1992-2012

文章基于1992-2012年五张投入产出表,利用拓展的直接消耗系数矩阵对中国三次产业中间消耗进行深入分析,解释了国民经济中间消耗水平变动的原因,分析了技术进步和产业结构调整对于提高经济效率的作用。同时,利用结构分解法对最终需求进行分解,分析了技术进步对提高最终需求的贡献。结果表明,考察期内技术进步对提高整体经济效率和改善最终需求的效果均不显著,近年来中间消耗水平的降低主要由于产业结构的优化,但制造业的技术进步在提高第二产业投入产出率方面成效明显。

The article based on five input-output tables from 1992 to 2012, using the expanded direct consumption coefficient matrix to deeply analyze the intermediate consumption of China＇s three industries, explained the reasons why intermediate consumption changes, analyzed the effect of technological progress and industrial restructuring to improve the economic efficiency. At the same time, we used Structure Decomposition Analysis to decompose the final demand, measured contribution of technological progress to the final demand. Results show that the contribution of technological progress to improving the economic efficiency and driving the final demand was not significant during the investigated period, the decrease in intermediate consumption in recent years mainly due to the optimiza- tion of industrial structure, but technological progress in manufacturing made a huge contribution to improving the productivity of second industry.