“一带一路”战略下中国对外直接投资贸易效应研究

Research on the Trade Effect of China's Foreign Direct Investment in Belt and Road Initiative Background

文章把市场寻求型对外直接投资细分为市场开拓型和贸易寻求型,然后以"一带一路"战略为研究背景,分析了市场开拓型和贸易寻求型对外直接投资的现状,并指出了中国在两种类型对外直接投资中存在的问题。基于对外直接投资引力模型,对中国2005-2014年向"一带一路"沿线国家进行直接投资的面板数据进行了实证检验。结果显示,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的直接投资有规避贸易壁垒的动机,同时对外直接投资与国际贸易之间具有明显的互补作用,即对外直接投资产生了贸易创造效应。另外,中国对"一带一路"沿线直接投资的中长期贸易效应较弱,但短期贸易效应十分明显。在实证研究的基础上,文章提出了优化中国对外直接投资结构、提高投资绩效的对策建议。

In this paper, the market seeking OFDI is divided into market development and trade seeking. Then in the background of The Belt and Road Strategy, this paper analyzes the current situation of market development OFDI and trade seeking OFDI, and points out the problems in the two types of direct investment. Based on the gravity model of OFDI and the panel data of China＇s foreign direct investment in 2005-2014, this paper makes an empirical test. The results show that China＇s foreign direct investment has the motivation to circumvent trade barriers. And in addition, foreign direct investment and international trade have obvious complementary effect. In the medium and long term, China＇s OFDI trade effect is weak, but in the short term, trade effect is very obvious. On the ba- sis of empirical research, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to optimize the structure of China＇s foreign direct investment and improve investment performance.