津京冀一体化下的区域购房与政府调控——基于集体行动视角

Limited Rationality and the Rising Price of Second-hand Housing in Cities——Based on the Perspective of Collective Action and Incomplete Information

文章从津京冀一体化的背景出发,运用演化博弈模型,从不完全信息的角度来分析房价在老城区和新区之间的关联变动关系,考察了市场行为主体在有限信息的情况下,在购买房屋时所采取的不同行为策略,以及政府应该采取的措施。发现在新区刚建立的阶段,人们都愿意在老城区买房,政府应该加快完善新区公共设施;在新区配套的公共产品投入使用,只存在通勤成本的情况下,居民购房行为不会出现一个稳定的均衡点,人们的行为会受到外部因素的影响,政府可以积极引导人们到新区购置房产;在新区的企业和公共设施都已经配套的情况下,存在一个进化稳定策略,一部分居民选择在新区买房,另一部分居民选择在老城区买房,此时不需要政府干预居民的购房行为。

In this paper, we believe that second-hand housing owners are limited rational economic individual. This paper analy- zes the reasons for the rise of second-hand housing prices in China from the perspective of evolutionary game. The study found that in the economy, when people can only invest in real estate, the owners will raise prices to sell second-hand housing. In the secondary housing market, when the supply and demand are very active, the owners will reach to a evolutionarily stable strategy, some owner to increase prices, another part of the owners do not rise. While the market downturn, the real estate owners do not have a balance point. The conclusions are as follows ： when the supply and demand is too high, we should increase the supply of real estate and reduce the housing vacancy. The government not only needs to increase the supply of second-hand housing, but also to increase the supply of new housing, as well as the supply of rental housing. The government can also take restriction policies to improve the proportion of two suites for the first time, improve the conditions of people to buy estates, etc. Those methods can control the second-hand housing prices rising. When the supply and demand are relatively small, the government should promote the real estate market to stimulate domestic demand. In addition, both supply and demand sides should actively broaden the channels of investment, help to alleviate the rising prices.