智能电网功能形态升级需求分析框架与模糊综合评价

Analysis Framework and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Smart Grid Function and Form Upgrade Needs

第三次工业革命和新一轮能源革命正在孕育发生,智能电网发挥着重要的承载和推动作用。提出了一种智能电网功能形态升级需求的分析框架和模糊综合评价方法。在第三次工业革命和新一轮能源革命背景下,从战略定位、功能需求、形态升级需求3个层次出发,建立了"四大定位+六大功能+三大平台"的智能电网功能形态升级需求分析框架;梳理了智能电网功能形态与第三次工业革命和新一轮能源革命的影响的结合点,以此为基础构建了智能电网功能形态升级需求评价指标体系;利用专家知识,采用层次分析法、熵权法确定各级指标权重,建立了智能电网功能形态升级需求的模糊综合评价模型;结合中国智能电网实践,进行实证分析,指出了承载第三次工业革命和新一轮能源革命的未来智能电网发展方向和重点领域。

The third industrial evolution and new round of energy evolution is emerging. Smart grid plays an important role in undertaking and promoting this process. A new method to analysis and evaluate smart grid function and form upgrade needs is proposed. Under third industrial evolution and new round of energy evolution, analysis framework of smart grid function and form upgrade needs in aspect of strategic positioning, functional requirements and form upgrade requirements is constructed. An evaluation index system of smart grid function and form upgrade needs is also built. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of smart grid function and form upgrade needs is constructed and index weights are determined by using expert knowledge, AHP and entropy method. Finally, using results obtained from practical cases, future development direction and key fields of smart grid to support third industrial evolution and new round energy evolution are described.