自然灾害的经济影响研究——以汶川大地震为例

Impacts of natural disasters on regional GDP——A case study of Wenchuan earthquake

我国传统的经济影响评估通常关注灾害所造成的直接经济损失和人员伤亡,而忽略其间接经济影响和时间维度上的变化,本文从理论和实证两个方面分析了汶川地震对四川省GDP所造成的影响。首先,论文根据索罗增长模型分析了地震发生后灾区的可能增长趋势;然后,通过柯布-道格拉斯生产函数及时间序列方法预测出若不发生地震时四川省的GDP,通过"有灾"时的实际值与"无灾"时的预测值进行对比。研究发现震后的恢复重建政策对四川经济发挥了积极有效作用,特别是长期来看拉动了四川省GDP的较快增长。

Existing researches on post - disaster economic impact focus on direct economic loss and casualty, but ignores indirect losses and dynamic impacts. The paper analyzes the economic impacts of Wenchuan earthquake on Sichuan Province＇ s GDP from both theoretical model and empirical analysis. Firstly, Solow Model is used to describe different possible developments ＇after natural disaster; then the C - D production function is used to test our theoretical models. We found that Siehuan has experienced a faster speed in its GDP increase in the long run clue to the post - disaster reconstruction policies by comparing the actual value in the period of ＂disaster＂ with the estimated value in the ＂disaster- free＂ period.