国际大宗商品价格变动加剧了经济波动吗？--基于金融加速器效应视角的TVAR模型检验

Does the Up-downs of International Commodity Price Deteriorate the Fluctuation of Real Economy?——From the Perspective of Financial Accelerator Effect and based on TVAR Model

文章基于金融加速器效应的视角,检验在长期内国际大宗商品价格变动是否加剧了经济的波动。从理论上看,大宗商品价格变动通过现金流机制、净财富机制和预期机制等多种途径,嵌入到金融加速器效应中并对经济的波动产生影响。实证分析表明,大宗商品价格变动较大时的金融加速器效应要大于大宗商品价格变动较小时的效应,这说明大宗商品价格变动加剧了经济的波动。不仅如此,大宗商品价格变动还对一些宏观经济变量产生直接的影响,尤其表现在对贸易收支的影响上。文章的政策涵义包括:在经济下行时要适度采取刺激性货币政策,防止大宗商品价格和工业品出厂价格的螺旋式下降,从而抑制大宗商品价格变动加剧经济波动的影响;货币政策要防止通过套利活动加剧大宗商品在短期内出现的价格超调现象,从而避免诱发更多的经济波动;要引导和管理好大宗商品价格变动的预期,平滑大宗商品价格变动对经济波动的影响;密切关注美元汇率和美国货币政策对国际大宗商品价格产生的影响。

This paper tries to test that the up-downs of international commodity price(short for ICP)deteriorate the fluctuations of real economy from the perspective of financial accelerator effect.Some mechanisms such as cash-flow net asset and expectations have combined influence on the financial accelerator effect.The TVAR model analysis shows that the up-downs of ICP do deteriorate the fluctuations of real economy through financial accelerator effect,and the up-downs of ICP have a negative effect on trade.So we should take some measures to contain this kind of links between the up-downs of ICP and real economy.we should take proactive monetary policy to prevent PPI from declining continuously,and to prevent the overshooting of ICP.Meanwhile,we should pay more attentions to the continuous decline of ICP which possibly deteriorate the fluctuations of real economy alike.It's also necessary for us to track down the change of the US monetary policy and exchange rate of US dollar.