超额准备金、货币政策传导机制与调控方式转型——基于银行信贷市场的分析

Excess Reserve,Policy Tools Transmission Mechanism and Transformation of Monetary Policy Regulation Mode: Based on the Analysis of the Bank Credit Market

文章围绕超额准备金率时序特征展开,通过构建一个适于我国政策环境的政策工具传导机制的理论分析框架,对调控中需求端和供给端的传导机理进行了理论分析。研究发现:在经济增速和超储率双下滑的环境下,基准利率工具并不能通过风险承担机制影响银行贷款供给,其对信贷需求的调控效能会有所减弱。而准备金工具和公开市场操作则对信贷供给的传导效率有所增强。文章还使用结构变点单位根检验和SVAR模型对政策工具有效性进行了实证检验,结果支持了理论分析结论。文章认为在基础货币投放方式转变的当下,货币政策经历着从需求调控向供给调控方式的转型。而伴随着流动性收缩,价格型调控方式会得到进一步强化。

This paper constructs a theory frame of credit transmission mechanism adapted Chinese market environment,for the purpose of respectively analyzing credit supply and demand regulation effectiveness of monetary policy tools.This paper reveals that excess reserve procyclically fluctuate under the influence of foreign exchange.Along with new foreign exchange and excess reserve reducing,the regulation effectiveness of benchmark rate instrument is gradually weaking for credit demand regulation,while the reserve tool and open market instrument are gradually enhancing for supply.With the diversification of policy tools effectiveness,the monetary policy regulation object belongs to credit supply from credit demand.The transformation of monetary policy regulation mode is an inevitable choice of base currency generating source from exchange to independent supply of the central bank.