人民币汇率对中美制造业就业和工资影响的比较研究——来自细分行业的经验数据

Comparative Research on Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on Employment and Wage in Sino-US Manufacturing: Empirical Evidence from Sub-sectors

文章通过构建对小国和大国经济均适用的劳动力市场动态一般均衡模型,推导出汇率影响就业和工资的传导机制,然后利用岭回归实证研究了人民币汇率对中美制造业细分行业就业和工资的影响,并考察了行业特征在此过程中发挥的作用。研究发现:人民币贬值能拉动中国大部分劳动密集型制造业行业的就业和工资增长,升值则能促进部分资本和技术密集型行业的就业上升,而人民币贬值或升值对美国绝大部分行业就业和工资的影响均不显著。因此,我国在实现人民币汇率长期稳定的进程中,应充分把握人民币升值对制造业结构升级的驱动效应,从而保证制造业就业的稳定增长;对于美国而言,其解决失业问题需从经济发展的环节进行突破,而不应一味地指责人民币汇率问题。此外,经营活动的性质和工会特征分别是造成中美制造业行业间就业水平差异的显著因素,平均受教育水平、专业技术水平、经济性垄断程度和所有制垄断程度则能对中美行业间工资回报差异产生决定性影响。

This paper derives transmission mechanisms of exchange rate influencing employment and wage through establishing dynamic general equilibrium model of labor market,which applies to both small countries and major countries.Then utilizing ridge regression,this paper does empirical research on impact of RMB exchange rate on employment and wage in Sino-US manufacturing subsectors,and studies the role of industry characteristics in the process.The study found that:RMB devaluation can boost employment and wage growth of vast majority of labor intensive industries in China,and RMB appreciation can prompt employment rising of most of capital and technology intensive industries,while the effect on employment and wage in most U.S.sub-sectors is insignificant.Therefore in the process of realizing the long-term stability of RMB exchange rate,China should fully grasp the driving effect of RMB appreciation on manufacturing industrial structure upgrading to ensure the steady growth in manufacturing employment.The U.S.needs the breakthrough from economic development rather than blindly blames the RMB exchange rate to deal with the problem of unemployment.In addition,the nature of business activity and trade union characteristics are important factors which lead to employment level difference among industries between China and the U.S.,while average level of education,professional and technical level,degree of economic monopoly and ownership monopoly play a decisive role in wage return difference among industries.