基于状态空间模型的医疗服务供需分析

Analyzing the Supply and Demand of Medical Services Based on the State space-Cobweb Model

目的:研究影响医疗服务供需的因素,分析医疗服务供需的均衡状况以及现阶段中国"看病难、看病贵"的原因。方法:将State space—Cobweb模型引入医疗服务市场,通过医疗服务价格将医疗服务需求和供给结合起来。同时,利用状态空间模型构造可变参数模型,建立修正的蛛网模型。结果:医疗服务需求的价格弹性绝对值为0.6682,医疗服务供给的价格弹性绝对值为2.2410,即医疗服务需求的价格弹性绝对值小于医疗服务供给的价格弹性绝对值。结论:医疗服务市场的供给和需求不均衡,且医疗服务价格处于振荡发散的状态,仅靠市场的调节,医疗服务价格将会越来越偏离均衡价格。

Objective To study the factors to influence the supply and demand of health services, and analyze the causes of ＂Difficult and Expensive Medical Treatment＂. Methods State space - Cobweb model was introduced into medical services market. The supply and demand of medical services was combined by medical service prices. And the balance of demand and supply of medical services was analyzed with modified cobweb model. Results The absolute value of the demand curve is 0.6682, and the absolute value of the supply curve is 2. 2410, namely, the supply curve is flatter than the demand curve. Conclusion The medical service market imbalance and the medical service price is in a state of divergence. The medical service price will be more and more far from the equilibrium price only relying on the market.