中日产业及贸易结构的比较分析——基于投入产出skyline方法

A Comparative Research on the Industry and Trade Structure between China and Japan Based on Skyline Analysis

文章通过投入产出skyline分析方法,测算中日各产业占比、进口率、出口率、自给率及加工贸易率,绘制出skyline图,并进行比较分析。结果表明,与日本相比,中国的第一产业占比仍然偏高,而第三产业不到40%,仍有很大的发展空间。2000年以前,中日间贸易以产业间贸易为主,存在明显的互补关系。2000年以后,中国重化学工业的自给率上升,中日产业内贸易增加,中日贸易的竞争关系加强。中国重化学工业的加工贸易比重增加,以及加工贸易方式的改变,使加工贸易的波及效应增加,导致中国的加工贸易诱发额占比大幅上升。

Using skyline analysis, the paper measures the industrial share, import rate, export rate, self-sufficient rate and processing trade rate of Japan and China in each industry, and draws skyline charts based on these measurements. The result shows that the proportion of China＇s primary industry is still very high, whereas the proportion of tertiary industry is lower than 40%, which suggests a good growth prospect for China. Before 2000, the inter- industry trade was predominant and the trade relationship was mostly complementary between Japan and China. After 2000, China＇s self-sufficient rate of heavy chemical industry has risen, the Intra-industry trade between Japan and China has increased, and the competition relationship of trade shows an intensified trend. The processing trade of China＇s heavy chemical industry has increased in the trade proportion and the mode of processing trade has changed, which increases the spread effect of processing trade, and makes the proportion of processing trade increase sharply.