中小城市文化产业发展趋势及发展路径研究——以安徽省芜湖市为例

Research on the Development Trend and Path of Cultural Industry in Small and Medium-sized Cities——A Case Study of Wuhu City

近年来,各地文化产业发展迅速,但部分地区特别是中小城市的文化产业发展仍面临诸多问题.以安徽省芜湖市为例,运用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对芜湖市文化产业发展趋势进行预测,发现文化产业持续稳定发展但对城市GDP的贡献度不高,其发展瓶颈主要包括政策不优、市场不广和人才不多.中小城市发展文化产业应先从难度较低的产业边缘层或产业外围层重点突破,然后再延伸到产品制作层,最后再考虑发展文化产业的核心创意层.

In recent years,the cultural industry has developed rapidly.However,there remains some problems referringto the development of cultural industry in small and medium-sized cities. Therefore, this paper applies the gray prediction method to forecast the development trend of cultural industry in a selected city,and finds out its slow development situation in small and medium-sized cities according to several factors such as poor policy, small market and less talents.Under this situation, this paper suggests that the relevant industry should be developed firstly from outside level, then extended to the prod- uct manufacturing level and finally to the creative core level.