北京市产业关联网络演变研究

The Evolution of Beijing's Industry Association Network

利用复杂网络理论和历史数据构建北京市产业关联网络模型,计算和比较2002、2005、2007、2010、2012年北京市产业关联网络的演变情况,分析其拓扑特征和社团结构演变的内在涵义。研究发现:北京市产业关联网络呈现出稀疏化的发展态势,节点之间的连边数量不断减少,网络密度逐步降低;前向关联程度最大的产业从信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业转变为水的生产和供应、交通运输仓储和邮政业,再转变为电力热力的生产和供应业,说明北京经济增长引擎不断升级;北京市产业关联网络的平均度和环向关联度都呈现出倒"V"型变化,环向结构越来越稀疏,这说明北京已经形成了稳定的外向型经济结构。根据研究结论,建议北京市产业发展应继续加强文化创意产业与生产性服务业在产业关联网络中的优势地位,发挥其在产业关联网络中的信号枢纽作用;对于处在产业关联网络边缘的产业应加大产业转移力度;加强能源管理,提升行业能源使用效率;产业集群应积极谋求向上突破,形成创新集群。

By constructing a Beijing industry association network model based on complex network theory and statistical data, this study analyzes the inner meaning of topological characteristics and community structure change by calculating and comparing topological characteristics of Beijing industry association network in 2002, 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2012. The study reveals several findings. First, industry association network of Beijing shows a tendency of sparsification, and the number of edges between nodes are decreasing and so is the network density. Second, industries of the highest forward correlation degree has shifted from information transmission, software and information tech- nology service industry to water production and supply, transportation, warehousing and postal service industry, and then to the production and supply of electricity and heat industry. This indicates that the engine of the economic growth of Beijing is upgrading. Third,the average degree and ring cor- relation degree of Beijing industry association network displays an inverted ＂V＂- type change and the ring structure a tendency of sparsification, which indicates that Beijing has developed a stable export- oriented economic structure. The study concludes with four suggestions： first, the government should continue to strengthen the advantageous position of the cultural creative industry and productive serv- ice industry to exercise their pivotal role in industry association network; second, greater efforts should be exerted on marginalized industry in the network for industrial transfer; third, energy man- agement should be strengthened to improve industry energy efficiency; lastly, industrial clusters should seek for breakthrough and form innovative clusters