重庆市化石能源消耗的CO_2排放及其峰值测算研究

CO_2 Emission from Fossil Energy Consumption in Chongqing and Prediction of Its Peak

运用实测法对重庆市CO_2的排放量、排放强度和排放源进行了测算,并在此基础上,将STIRPAT拓展模型应用于重庆市化石能源消耗的CO_2排放峰值的测算.结果表明:(1)伴随着重庆市经济的高速增长,重庆市CO_2排放量急剧增加,重庆的经济发展还是粗放型增长;(2)历史渊源(重工业基地)和国家发展战略(东部优先发展)决定了重庆市的碳排放强度与全国平均水平还有很大差距,能源利用率相对较低;(3)大量的煤炭消费是CO_2的主要来源,其平均贡献率高达82.33%;(4)按照当前发展趋势,重庆市的CO_2排放峰值将在2025-2045年期间出现;(5)产业转型和碳排放强度对峰值的出现具有显著影响,经济发展中成功实现产业转型升级和对碳排放强度的控制,会推动峰值提前到来.反之,则会导致重庆市碳排放峰值出现时间后延.

Adopting the actual measurement method, CO2 emission, CO2 emission intensity and emission sources in Chongqing are determined, and the STIRPAT model is applied to predict the occurrence of the peak of CO2 emission from fossil energy consumption of the city. The findings are as follows. The economic development of Chongqing remains to be of the extensive mode, and with the rapid growth of its economy, CO2 emission is dramatically increasing. Historically, Chongqing was a heavy industry base and the central government adopted a strategy of preferential development of the east, which contributed to a big gap between the carbon emission intensity of the city and that of the national average and to a comparatively low energy utilization rate. Huge amount of coal consumption is the main source of CO2 emission, with a contribution rate of 82. 33%. According to the current developing trend, the peak of Chongqing＇s CO2 emission will arrive between 2025 and 2045. Industrial transformation and carbon emission intensity have significant influences on the arrival of the peak. Successful industrial transformation and upgrading and effective control of carbon emission intensity will advonce the peak of Chongqing＇s carbon emission. Otherwise, the arrival of the peak will be olelayed.