AHP法不同行业专家咨询结果差异的对比分析

Comparison and Analysis of Results from Professional Experts of Different Specialty by AHP

采用AHP法和专家咨询调查法,对我国高速公路交通低能见度、降雨、冰冻雨雪和大风等4种气象灾害风险进行评估,共邀请了24名专家进行打分(南方和北方专家分别为10人和14人,气象专家和交通专家分别为10人和14人),打分结果表明:(1)对不同区域高速公路交通气象灾害的风险,北方专家认为致灾因子的危险性高于南方地区,而南方专家则认为环境的脆弱性远远大于北方地区(除了低能见度之外);(2)对不同行业,气象专家认为高影响因子的危险性和暴露性的贡献较大,而交通专家则认为脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的贡献较大;(3)相同地区不同行业专家的认知也存在一定差异。

The meteorological disaster risks of highway traffic are assessed by AHP and expert consultation, which includes low visibility, rainfall, freezing rain and snow, and gale. A total of 24 meteorological and traffic experts, 10 from north and 14 from south of China, are invited to make scoring. The scoring results show that the hazard of highway traffic meteorological disasters risk in northern region is higher than the southern region by the northern experts. However, the southern experts consider the environmental vulnerability is far greater than the northern region, except the low visibility. According to different specialty, weather experts think the hazard and exposure more contributive, while the traffic experts believe that vulnerability and ability of disaster prevention and reduction have greater contribution. Simultaneously there are some differences cognition with different specialty experts in the same area.