基于地理探测器的沼泽湿地变化驱动因子定量分析——以小三江平原为例

Quantitative study on the driving factors of marsh change based in Geographical Detector——Case study on Small Sanjiang Plain

以湿地变化较为剧烈的小三江平原为研究区域,结合GIS和RS技术,利用地理探测器方法定量分析了沼泽湿地变化的驱动力,揭示了各驱动因子在沼泽湿地变化中的作用及相互关系.结果表明:1986—2010年小三江平原沼泽湿地丧失严重,湿地丧失较多的地区主要位于研究区中部及东北部的草甸土和沼泽土土壤类型、低河漫滩地貌类型、海拔51~55m及1°~3°坡度处;1986—2010年间,小三江平原沼泽湿地丧失的主要驱动因子按贡献率大小排列依次为土壤类型、坡度、地貌、与河流距离、年降水量和海拔;各驱动因子之间的交互作用大部分是非线性增强,其中与保护区距离、与居民点距离和行政区的交互作用均呈非线性增强作用,坡度、土壤类型、地貌、与河流距离等自然因子之间的交互作用是相互减弱的;自然因子虽然对小三江平原湿地面积丧失的贡献率较大,但它们必须在人为因子的作用下,是与人为因子的相互作用,共同造成小三江平原沼泽湿地的大面积丧失.

The paper takes the Small Sanjiang Plain as the study area,for the wetland change there is severe, using the technology of GIS and RS,comblned with the geographical detector method,to make the quantitative analysis of driving factors for wetland changes and reveal the role and relationship in the wetland change between every factor. The results show that： the wetland loss is severe from 1986 to 2010. The more severe areas of wetland loss are mainly located in central and northeast of meadow soil and bog soil types,low river floodplain geomorphology types, 51~ 55 m altitude and the slope of 1~3 degrees. From 1986 to 2010,the power of determinant to wetland loss of each driving factors is soil type, slope, geomorphology, and distance from the river, the annual precipitation and altitude; The interaction between each factor is nonlinear enhancement, and the interaction of distance, with the residential district protection distance and administrative region show a nonlinear enhancement effect. The interaction between slope, soil type, topography, and the distance from the river and other natural factors are weakened. Although the power of determinant of natural factors have the bigger effect to the wetland loss of Small Sanjiang Plain,it have to interact with human factors,which commonly cause a big area of wetland loss in Small Sanjiang plain.