2016年世界及中国乙烯工业发展回顾及2017年展望

A Review of World and China's Ethylene Industry in 2016 and an Outlook for 2017

2016年世界乙烯产能达1.64亿吨/年,预计2017年将增至1.72亿吨/年,世界乙烯工业进入新一轮扩张周期。但因中东和东北亚地区消费增速放缓,2017年世界乙烯消费增速将继续下滑至3%左右。低油价使石脑油裂解等高成本装置竞争力显著提高,即便油价在2017年出现回升,但坚挺的乙烯价格使各路线裂解装置利润仍维持在较好水平。2016年我国乙烯产能为2 261万吨/年,得益于低油价及聚烯烃产品附加利润较好,所有路线装置均保持较高的开工水平。预计2017年我国乙烯产能增至2 450万吨/年,当量消费增速将从上年的3%提高至4%左右,由于聚烯烃溢价依然存在,预计各一体化装置利润仍将维持较好水平。

World ethylene capacity reached 164 Mt/a in 2016, and will be up to 172 Mt/a in 2017, indicating another expansion cycle of capacity. Global consumption growth rate will slow down to 3% due to the slowing growth in Middle East and Northeast Asia. Low oil price has favored the competitiveness of high cost naphtha cracking units. Despite the rising oil price, all cracking plants with different feedstock routes will still profit well from the strong price of ethylene in 2017. China＇s ethylene capacity reached 22.61 Mt/a in 2016, and all its cracking plants gained relatively high operating rates, thanks to the low oil price and high polyolefin profits. China＇s ethylene capacity is estimated to reach 24.50 Mt/a in 2017. The growth rate of ethylene equivalent consumption will recover from 3% last year to 4% in 2017. All the integrated ethylene plants will retain relatively good profit, considering the premium price of polyolefin products.