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“伊斯兰国”在中亚的势力延伸:现实梳理与可能性评估 被引量:4

A Realistic Review and Probabilistic Assessment on ISIS' Power Expansion into Central Asia
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摘要 "伊斯兰国"组织在中亚主要从事极端思想的传播和恐怖主义战斗人员的招募活动;目前看,中亚并不具备"伊斯兰国"组织极端思想广为传播的社会基础。其思想主张很难被中亚传统穆斯林社会接受,但是却得到年轻一代激进穆斯林的欢迎。"伊斯兰国"组织对中亚的安全威胁主要在于:恐怖主义战斗人员从"伊斯兰国"组织回流到中亚;"伊斯兰国"组织超强的思想同化和重组各色恐怖组织的能力给中亚稳定构成潜在挑战。其未来对中亚的安全威胁取决于以下因素的变化:在中东的军事冲突中是否遭受重创;能否得到阿富汗塔利班的支持;全球伊斯兰极端主义的蔓延。 ISIS' activities in Central Asia mainly consist of spreading extremist ideology and recruiting combatants. Central Asia does not have the societal base to allow ISIS' extremist views to become widespread, as the group's ideologies are hard for Central Asia's traditional Muslim society to accept. However, its ideas have gained traction with some radical young Central Asian Muslims. The main threats ISIS creates for Central Asian security are the radicalized terrorists they send back home and the potential to assimilate and reorganize various regional terrorist groups under ISIS ideology. Its future threat to Central Asia's security will be determined by the degree of losses it suffers in its current Middle-Eastern conflicts, whether or not it can obtain the Taliban's support, and the global spread radical Islam.
作者 苏畅
出处 《俄罗斯学刊》 2017年第3期69-76,共8页 Academic Journal of Russian Studies
关键词 中亚安全“伊斯兰国”组织 恐怖主义 极端主义 Central Asian Security ISIS Terrorism Extremism
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