美俄在叙利亚危机中的博弈策略分析——基于“重复囚徒困境”的视角

Analysis of Game Strategy between the United States and Russia in Syria Crisis——Based on the Perspective of Repeated Prisoners' Dilemma

叙利亚危机从爆发至今已有六年多的时间,对于危机产生的原因以及危机进程中西方、中东各国与俄罗斯、叙利亚之间的博弈互动,国内研究更多集中在对于事件的定性之上,采用定量的方法研究叙利亚危机,目前来看还是比较少的。采用"重复囚徒困境"理论,对叙利亚危机期间,美国与俄罗斯围绕叙利亚所展开的一系列军事、政治、外交等方面的博弈进行分析,探讨美俄两国在叙利亚危机期间所采取的策略及其背后的动因可知,美俄两国在叙危机期间所采取的对策呈现出明显的"重复囚徒困境"模式,且两国所处的国际环境及其实力的不同决定了两国应对策略的差异化。

The outbreak of the crisis in Syria has been more than six years. The causes of the crisis and the interaction between the west, the Middle East and Russia, Syria, the domestic research focuses more on the qualitative nature of events and at present it is still relatively little in quantitative study of Syria crisis. Applying the theory of repeated prisoner＇ s dilemma, the United States and Russia around Syria crisis launched a series of military, political, diplomatic and other aspects during the Syria crisis, the strategies adopted by the United States and Russia and the reasons behind it during the Syria crisis are discussed. The countermeasures adopted by the United States and Russia in the period of the Syrian crisis show a distinct pattern of repeated national environment and the strength of the two countries decide to deal with prisoners＇ dilemma, and the interthe differences of strategies.