基于层次分析法和模糊理论的液氨泄漏风险研究

Risk Analysis of Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Theory

采用层次模糊数学理论评价法对液氨企业进行定性和定量的风险评估,从员工的不安全行为、设备设施的不安全状态、安全管理的缺陷、不良的作业环境4个方面构建液氨泄漏事故原因的阶级层结构模型,研究分析事件发生泄漏原因的影响水平,并进行综合性的评判.以液氨使用企业为例,运用该模型可分析出不同企业的安全优劣等级和共同存在的泄漏风险特征.提出应完善企业法律法规定性指标检测的方法、提升员工的专业知识和技术水平、强化生产工艺系统和储罐系统定期与不定期安全检查的力度、建立设备的维修及更新淘汰机制、加强人工智能化检测的建设实现人与科技的双控防范的措施.

The hierarchical-fuzzy theory was executed in liquid ammonia enterprises for qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. The class layer structure model of accident causes was built from four aspects, the unsafe behavior of employees, the unsafe condition of equipment and facilities, safety management deficiencies and poor working environment. The affect level of incident cause was evaluated. The safety merits order and existence of leakage risk characteristics were analyzed by using the models of some ammonia enterprises. It is suggested that we should implement the corporate legal law, develop the professional knowledge and technology of staffs, improve the regular and irregular safety inspection for production process system and storage tank system, establish equipment maintenance and update mechanism, strengthen the artificial intelligence detection to realize the dual control of people and technology.