近55a宁夏酿酒葡萄晚霜冻基本特征及变化趋势

Analysis on Basic Characteristics and Variation Trend of Wine Grape Late Frost in NingXia During Recent 55 Years

利用1961—2015年宁夏16个气象站的逐日最低气温资料,根据酿酒葡萄霜冻气候指标统计终霜日、霜冻时间,用统计和气候诊断分析方法,研究宁夏酿酒葡萄的晚霜冻的基本特征和变化趋势.结果表明,近55a宁夏酿酒葡萄的平均终霜日在4月中旬至5月上旬,按90%保证率计算,各站终霜日的界限期在4月底至5月中旬;全区酿酒葡萄晚霜冻平均时间为92d.宁夏酿酒葡萄全区平均终霜日呈提早趋势,2个区域终霜日的年际变化趋势均与全区一致;全区酿酒葡萄霜冻时间呈减少趋势,引黄灌区霜冻时间的线性倾向率与全区接近.20世纪60~80年代,全区平均终霜日偏迟,90年代及以后终霜日偏早,21世纪以来,特别是近5a,偏早趋势较为明显;全区轻、中、重霜冻时间与55a平均值相比,在20世纪70年代偏多,60和80年代基本持平,90年代及以后偏少.21世纪以来,特别是近5a,偏少较为明显.近55a全区终霜日的突变年在1984年,引黄灌区在1986年,中部干旱带在1983年;霜冻时间的突变在1984年.

Basing on counted latest frost date and frost time of wine grape frost climate index, the article analyzes the basic characteristic and variation trend of Ningxia wine grape late frost according to everyday minimum air temperature data in 16 meteorological stations in Ningxia from 1961 to 2015 with the methods of statistics and climatological diagnosis. The result shows that, the average latest frost date of wine grape is between middle April till early May in Ningxia, and the boundary line of latest frost is between end April and middle of May at each stations counted according to assurance rate of 90%; the average period of wine grape latest frost in the whole region is 92 days. The average latest frost date tends to be earlier in Ningxia, the interannual variation tendency in 2 districts accords with the whole region; the frost period of wine grape tends to decrease in the whole region; the frost time linear tendency in Yellow River diversion irrigated area is close to the whole area. The average latest frost in the whole area tended to be late from 1960s to 1980s, and earlier after 1990s, the latest frost tends to be earlier significantly since 21st century, especially recent 5 years; comparing with the mean value of 55 years, the light, medium, and heavy frost period tends to be more in 1970s, identical in 1960s and 1980s, and less in 1990s, it decreases significantly since 21st century, especially recent 5 years. The mutation year of Ningxia＇s latest frost is 1984 in recent 55 years, and 1986 in Yellow River diversion irrigated area, and 1983 in central arid area; the mutation year of frost is 1984.