税负转嫁能力对“营改增”政策效应的影响——基于现金—现金流敏感性视角的检验

The Policy Effect of Tax Shifting on the Replacement of Business Tax by VAT——An Analysis Basing on Cash-Cash Flow Sensitivity

由于增值税具有易于转嫁的性质,企业能获得的"营改增"政策红利程度与其自身税负转嫁能力密切相关。本文首先基于新制度经济学中的交易费用理论阐述了"营改增"对现金—现金流敏感性的作用机理,并以供应商议价能力和客户议价能力作为企业税负转嫁能力的衡量指标,通过公式推导分析了税负转嫁能力对"营改增"政策效应的影响;其次基于现金来源与运用的约束,采用系统方程考察了"营改增"的政策效应以及税负转嫁能力对"营改增"政策效应的影响;最后对不同产权性质、不同行业类型企业的政策效应差异进行了研究。结果表明:"营改增"能有效降低企业的现金—现金流敏感性,改善企业现金持有状况;税负转嫁能力会改变"营改增"对现金—现金流敏感性的政策效应,税负转嫁能力越强,"营改增"政策效应越强;"营改增"的政策效应及税负转嫁能力对政策效应的影响在非国有企业和其他现代服务业企业中显著;在考虑"营改增"对现金—现金流敏感性的影响时应综合考虑其他与现金流相关项目的作用。本文的研究结论为政府后续宏观政策及时调整和补充提供了有效实证证据和结论。

As the value-added tax is easy to shift, the benefit of the replacement of business tax by VAT depends on the enterprises＇ ability of tax shifting. The paper analyzes the impact of replacement of business tax by VAT on cash-cash flow sensitivity theoretically using transaction costs, and discusses the impact of the replacement of business tax by VAT on cash-cash flow sensitivity based on the ability of tax shifting. Then subjected to the independence of financial decisions that sources must equal uses of cash, we study the impact on cash-cash flow sensitivity of the replacement of business tax by VAT. Also we analyze the difference of the reform between state- owned companies and non-state-owned companies as well as the difference between several industries. The results show that the replacement of business tax by VAT can reduce the cash-cash flow sensitivity, while the stronger tax shifting ability, the more benefit the company will have. Furthermore, the policy effects are more evident in nonsate-owned companies and in modem service industry. The other factors of cash flow can have a great influence on the decision of cash holdings. These findings can be used as a reference for the government and the enterprises.