西部人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调性分析——基于12省区面板数据模型

Analysis of the Coordination of Population Urbanization and Land Urbanization—— A Panel Data Model Based on the 12 Western Provinces

通过构建建成区面积和城镇总人口的指数关系模型,实证检验西部地区人口城镇化与土地城镇化之间长期均衡关系,结论为:西部地区土地规模弹性系数为1.48(国际公认标准值为1.12),说明人口-土地城镇化存在失调发展状况,表现为人口城镇化滞后或者土地城镇化超前,从12省区具体情况看,人口-土地城镇化协调发展的差异较大,其中,重庆和宁夏土地规模弹性系数最高,为国际标准值的两倍;甘肃和青海土地规模弹性系数低于国际标准值;其他的省区介于两者之间,最后提出实现西部地区人口-土地城镇化的协调发展对策建议.

An index model of relationship between built - up urban area and urban population is established and it reveals the long - term equilibrium relationship of population urbanization and land urbanization. The empirical test on 12 western provinces show that long - term land scale elastic coefficient is 1.48 （ the rea- sonable international value is 1.12）, which implies the imbalanced development between population urbani- zation and land urbanization, either back - warded population urbanization or advanced land urbanization. To be specific, results vary from a province to another： Chongqing and Ningxia score the twice the standard; in Gansu and Qinghai highest, about , the land scale elasticity coefficient is lower than the standard val- ues; other provinces are in between. Based on the result, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.