北京市行业经济产出对气象变化的敏感性分析

Sensitivity analyses of industrial economic output to weather variability in Beijing

本文利用2002-2013年经济和气象的历史数据,分析了北京市各行业经济产出对气象因素变化的敏感性。通过改进Cobb-Douglas(C-D)生产函数这一计量经济模型,建立了气象因素变化和行业经济产出之间的数量因果关系;采用岭回归模型对北京市的行业经济-气象系统要素进行分析,得到了北京市各行业对气象条件的敏感性排名。即,建筑业、批发零售业和金融业对气象条件变化表现出高敏感性,而农业对气象条件变化的敏感性最低;从高到低依次为建筑业(0.4995)、批发与零售业(0.4176)、金融业(0.2933)、交通运输仓储和邮政业(0.2806)、工业(0.2799)、住宿和餐饮业(0.2710)、卫生与社会保障和社会福利业(0.2691)、文化体育和娱乐业(0.2607)、农业(0.2537)。通过度量行业经济对气象因素变化的敏感性大小,有利于北京政府理解这些影响并科学地进行产业结构调整和资源格局优化。研究结果表明,岭回归获得的结果更加符合北京市行业经济发展的实际情况。

Based on 12 years （2002-2013 ）of economic data and historical weather observations, we analyzed the sensitivity of the industry economy to changes in meteorological factors. By improving an econometric model, Cobb-Douglas （C-D） production function, a quantitative causal relationship is established between meteorological factors and industry economy. Ridge regression modeling was employed to analyze meteorological factors and the industry economy of Beijing. Sensitivity ranking of Beijing economic industry was obtained, three among which are hypersensitive： construction industry, wholesale and retail trade, and financial industry. Agriculture is the least sensitive. The sensitivity ranking, from highest to lowest was： construction industry （0.499 5） , wholesale and retail trade （0.417 6） financial industry （0.293 3） , transportation, warehousing and postal services （0.280 6） , industry （0.279 9） , accommodation and catering industry （0.271 0） , health and social security and welfare （0.269 1 ） , cultural and sports and entertainment industry （0.260 7）, and agriculture （0.253 7）. Sensitivity analysis is helpful to the government of Beijing when conducting the industrial restructuring and optimization of resource patterns. This research indicates ridge regression is more in keeping with local economic development in Beijing.