新常态下中国经济增长动力新解——基于“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”的测算与对比

New Solutions for China's Economic Growth Momentum in the New Normal——Calculation and Comparison Based on “Innovation,Coordination,Green,Open,Sharing”

在新常态下,如何以五大发展理念为指导来稳定经济增长,是一个新的需要深入研究的重大课题,但目前针对性的实证研究还较为鲜见。本文在柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的基础上引入创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大发展理念为自变量,以2000—2015年全国的时序数据和2000—2014年省级区域的面板数据为样本,通过岭回归和面板数据模型对经济增长动力进行测算、对比分析。研究结论为:第一,五大发展理念变量对经济贡献的比率不同,除了绿色发展外,其他解释变量都为正,且弹性系数由大到小依次为资本、劳动、创新、协调、开放、共享与绿色;第二,分区域从五大发展理念来看经济增长,表现由好到差依次为东部、中部和西部地区;第三,中国地区经济差距从2000年以来呈现逐步扩大趋势,但是协调发展和共享发展有利于经济增长的相对趋同。着眼于"供给侧结构性改革"深入挖掘增长新动力,本文提出了针对性的相关对策和建议。

Under the ＂New Normal＂, how to use the five development ideas as a guide to make a steady economic growth is a new major issue requiring in-depth study, but the current empirical research is still relatively rare. Based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, this paper introduces the five development concepts of ＂innovation, coordination, green, open and sharing＂ as independent variables, uses the time series data from 2000 to 2015 and the panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2014, calculates the economic growth momentum, and makes comparative analyses through the ridge regression and the panel data model. The results show as follows. Firstly, in addition to the green development, the other explanatory variables are positive, and the elastic coefficient from large to small is in the order of capital, labor, innovation, coordination, open, share and green, while the first and fifth development concept variables on the economic contribution rate are different; secondly, according to the sub- regional development concept from the five to analyze the economic growth, the performances from the good to bad are：the eastern region, the central region and the western region. Thirdly, China＇s regional economic gap has gradually expanded since 2000, but the coordinated development and sharing development are conducive to the relative convergence of economic growth. Thus, this paper puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions,focusing on the ＂supply-side structural reform＂.