构建有利于经济平稳增长的金融体系

Building a Financial System Conducive to Steady Economic Growth

本文结合相关理论就金融结构对经济波动的影响机制进行了分析。研究发现,基于金融加速器理论,金融发展水平的提高可以抑制经济波动。当融资方式可以完全替代时,若银行收紧信贷,企业可从金融市场获得融资,信贷总量的减少不会影响企业经营。但当直接融资无法完全代替间接融资时,部分企业不得不依赖于银行贷款,使得外部冲击可以通过银行中介渠道放大对波动的影响。针对跨国面板数据进行的实证分析表明:金融发展对于经济波动的影响具有不确定性;市场主导型的金融结构有利于降低波动。

This paper analyzes the mechanism of how financial structure influences economic fluctuation by combining relevant theories. Based on the theory of financial accelerator, the improvement of financial development level can curb economic fluctuation. If direct financing and indirect financing are completely replaced, when the banks tighten credit, companies can still get financing from financial markets;the reduction in total credit does not have a substantial impact on corporate investment and output. Therefore, financial structure will not affect fluctuations. However, when direct financing cannot replace indirect financing, those who cannot borrow from financial market will have to rely on bank loans, which allows external shocks to be enlarged through the bank intermediary channel to influence the volatility. On this basis, this paper presents two theoretical hypotheses. Firstly, the impact of financial development on economic volatility is uncertain. Secondly, the market-oriented financial structure is conducive to reducing volatility. Finally, the empirical analysis was carried out using data of 95 countries from 1975 to 2014, and the results supported the theoretical hypothesis.