混沌时间序列及其在能源系统中的应用

Chaotic Time Series and Application of Energy System

混沌经济时间序列的预测方法研究是混沌经济非线性动力系统的重要内容 笔者利用混沌动力学原理 ,通过混沌时间序列的相空间重构 ,运用局域预测方法 ,建立了预测模型 并用其确立的混沌动力学模型对 1 991年至 1 999年全国能源的生产、消费时间序列进行了预测 而且把此预测结果与实际值进行了比较 ,结果证明误差较小 ,同时还将此预测结果与常规方法建立的预测模型的预测结果相比 。

The nonlinear chaotic model reconstruction is the major important quantitative index for describing accurate experimental data obtained in dynamic analysis. Based on chaotic dynamic principle, phase space reconstruction of chaotic time series and part forecasting a chaotic phase space mode is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested by comparison of the real data with the regulative forecasting model for energy production and energy consumption of 1991-1999 period in China.