垂直升船机火灾多米诺效应致因的逆向推理

Reverse inference on the cause of domino effect in the vertical ship lift fire

为溯源垂直升船机火灾多米诺效应致因,综合考虑火灾状态演变的不确定性,分析垂直升船机火灾发生机理,基于模糊Petri网(FPN)执果索因的逆向推理技术,建立火灾传播逆向模糊Petri网(RFPN)模型,利用高斯概率分布函数,描述多米诺效应结果状态可信度,通过前后库所变迁关系,逆向迭代计算火灾致因可信度,按照总路径可信度最大原则,确定最可能传播路径。结合三峡升船机案例可知:主机室静电短路和储藏易燃物处所用火不慎是火灾的主要致因。

In order to trace the cause of fire domino effect of vertical ship lift, on the basis of the reverse reasoning of fuzzy petri net （FPN）, a model for fire spread reverse fuzzy petri net（RFPN） was established by considering uncertainty in the evolution of fire state, and analyzing fire mechanism of vertical ship lift.The resultstate reliability of domino effect was described according to gauss probability distribution function.Through the relationship between the front and the back of the library, the inverse iteration method was used to calculate the induced reliability of fire. Most likely path of fire was determined by the maximum principle of the total path reliability.The three gorges ship lift case showed that, the two major causes of fire are static electricity or short circuit of main engine room and careless use of fire in storeroom where inflamma ble is stored.