广西碳减排潜力及低碳发展策略

Carbon-Reduction Potentiality and Development Strategy on Low-Carbon of Guangxi

以广西2005—2014年的碳排放数据为基础,采用对数平均Divisia分解法对经济发展、能源结构和能源效率等碳排放因素进行分解,并分析了广西碳减排潜力.结果表明:广西人均碳排放不断增长,经济发展是主要驱动力,但能源结构和能源效率对人均碳排放具有抑制作用;广西碳减排潜力最大的是工业部门,重点是高耗能行业.最后针对广西经济发展的特点和目标提出了优先排序和分阶段实施碳减排的低碳发展策略,并从技术、管理、经济和能源结构以及制度等方面提出了减排措施.

Based on the carbon emission data during 2005-- 2014 of Guangxi, the logarithmic mean Divisia index method was adopted to decompose the carbon emission factors such as economic development, energy structure and efficiency, and the carbon reduction potentialities of Guangxi were analyzed.. The results show that the per capita carbon emission of Guangxi increases, and the economic development is the main pulling force, while the energy structure and energy efficiency are the inhibitory forces. The great potentiality for carbon emission reduction is in the industry, especially in the energy-intensive industries. Finally, some suggestions on how to prioritize the carbon reduction targets in Guangxi and implement them stage by stage were proposed, and some measures for carbon emission reduction, such as technology,management, economic structure and energy structure, low- carbon development construction system, and so on, were put forward.