中国与新兴市场国家双边农产品贸易影响因素及潜力研究

Research on the Impacting Factors and Potential of Lateral Agricultural Trade between China and Emerging Market States

基于2005年~2015年协调制度(HS)4位编码的农产品贸易面板数据,构建扩展的贸易引力模型,从总量和分类层面分析中国与12个新兴市场国家农产品贸易的影响因素,并测算其贸易潜力。中国与新兴市场国家双边农产品贸易总体上略微"贸易过度",但中国与许多新兴市场国家在4种分类农产品上表现为"贸易不足",新兴市场仍存在较大潜力。因此,中国应当调整农产品进出口结构、实施市场多元化战略、增强自身经济、积极加入区域经济组织、大力开发市场潜力。

Based on the panel data of agricultural trade of 4-bit code from harmonized system within 2005-2015, this paper establishes the expanded trade gravity model, analyzes the impacting factor on agricultural trade between China and 12 emerging market stats from the aspects of total quantity and classification, and measures the trade potential. The bilateral agri- cultural trade shows the phenomenon of ＂slight excessive trade＂, while that in the four varieties of classified products shows ＂insufl^icient trade＂, and the emerging markets still have larger potential. Thus, China should adjust the agricultural import/ex- port structure, implement market diversification strategy, enhance self-economy, actively participate in regional economic or- ganization and strive to development market potential.