日本政府债务余额居高不下的原因分析——基于财政治理视角

Reasons for the Sustained High Level of Japanese Government Debt——Analysis from the Perspective of Fiscal Governance

日本财务省近期发布估算数据显示,加上借款和为填补暂时性资金缺口而发行的政府短期债券在内,日本国家债务总额已经超过1000万亿日元。同时,国债发行余额在2026财年(2027年3月底)预计将达1029.31万亿日元(约合人民币62万亿元),这一数据是在日本央行货币宽松政策造成的持续低利率,使国家支付利息的负担大幅度减轻的前提下计算得出的。即便如此,国债发行余额也将在未来10年增加近200万亿日元,财政危机状况进一步加剧。本文梳理日本国债情况,以及日本国债的发行、偿还机制等管理制度,同时与将债务规模抑制在较低水平的美国、欧洲国家的相关机制进行比较,基于财政治理视角进行分析和研究,以期对我国国债的运作提供参考。

The estimated data which the Japanese Ministry of Financehas published recently showed that gross central government debt of Japan has exceeded 1000 trillion Yen, including centralgovernment borrowing and- short-term government bill issuedfortemporary fiscal gap. Furthermore, at the end of the fiscal year 2026, the central govermnent debt will reach 1029.31 trillion Yen （62 trillion RMB）. These Data were calculated based on the premise of continued low interest rates which resulted from implementation of QE by the Bank of Japan and the great decrease of interest burden. Meanwhile, the data also reflect the future increase of central government debt by about 200 trillion Yen and a potential fiscal risk. Based on the perspective of fiscal governance, this paper sorts out the status quo of Japanese government debt and debt management system such as issuing and redeeming, in comparison to countries with relatively lower debt scale, and provides references for the management of China＇s central government debt.