相控阵天线阵面通道故障数量预测方法

Prediction method of channel fault numbers in phased array antenna

为预测定期维修条件下相控阵雷达天线阵面通道故障数量,提出一种改进的GM(1,1)方法。分析了传统GM(1,1)方法在预测天线阵面通道故障数量时存在的问题,针对天线阵面通道故障历史数据的波动性,通过滑动平均法对数据进行预处理,改善了原始数据用于灰色预测的适应性;针对固定背景值不能反映数据波动规律的问题,通过引入自适应算子对背景值进行重构;针对预测过程中的数据不便更新问题,引入新陈代谢方法对模型的初始数据进行更新。建立了改进GM(1,1)模型,给出了具体的计算步骤,并通过实例仿真与算法比较,验证了所提预测方法的有效性。

To resolve the prediction problems of channel fault numbers in phased array antenna under regu- lar maintenance, an advanced GM（1,1） method was proposed. The problems that arise when predicting the channel fault numbers in phased array antenna with traditional GM（1,1） method were analyzed. To solve the problem of volatility about the historical fault data, a sliding average method was used to prepro- cess the initial data to improve the adaptation for grey prediction method. Considering the fixed background value can not reflect the data fluctuation, a self-adaption operator was introduced to rebuild the back- ground value. Focusing on the non-renewable data problem, the metabolic method was introduced to up- date the initial data. The advanced GM（1,1） model was built, and the calculation steps given. Simulations of an instance and comparative analysis were also conducted at the end of this paper. The results show that the proposed method is of high effectiveness.