住房公积金、城市定居与生育意愿——基于流动人口的调查分析

Housing Provident Fund, Urban Settlement and Fertility Desire:Based on the Investigation and Analysis of the Floating Population

住房公积金与城市定居作为影响家庭资源配置的重要因素,对流动人口生育意愿产生了重要影响。本文基于2013年中国七城市的调查数据,利用Logit模型与泊松回归模型,将城市定居分为定居意愿与城市购房两个维度,分析了住房公积金与城市定居对流动人口生育意愿的影响。研究发现,住房公积金与城市定居对流动人口生育意愿产生两种相反的效应:挤入效应和挤出效应,前者不仅提高了流动人口选择生育的概率,而且增加了流动人口生育子女的数量;后者在降低流动人口选择生育概率的同时,减少了流动人口生育子女的数量。此外,通过对住房公积金与城市定居意愿的交互分析发现,住房公积金弱化了城市定居意愿对流动人口生育意愿的挤出效应;但住房公积金与城市购房的交互作用只存在丈夫模型中,即住房公积金缓解了城市购房对丈夫生育子女数量的负向作用。结合研究得出的观点与结论,文章最后探讨了相关的政策启示。

Based on the survey data of seven cities in China in 2013, this paper analyzes the influence of housing provident fund and urban settlement on the fertility willingness of floating population by using Logit model and Poisson regression model, dividing urban settlement into two dimensions of settlement intention and urban purchase. We find that housing provident fund and the city settled have two opposite effects on the floating population＇s fertility intention. In addition, through a cross-analysis of housing provident fund and the city settled intention,we find housing provident fund weakens the urban settlement intention crowding out effect of the floating population＇s fertility desire. Finally, this paper discusses the policy implications of this research.