贺州市手足口病发病的气象影响因素分析

Analysis of the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Hezhou City

目的探讨影响贺州市手足口病发病的主要气象因素,为科学预警和防控提供依据。方法收集2009—2014年贺州市手足口病发病资料和气象资料,采用Spearman相关确定滞后期、多因素Poisson回归分析手足口病周发病数与气象因素之间的关系。结果贺州市手足口病全年均有病例发生,春末夏初和秋季出现发病高峰。多因素Poisson回归分析结果表明,在控制周时间趋势的影响后,前3周平均风速越大(RR=1.163,95%CI:1.136—1.189)、前4周的周相对湿度越大(RR=1.006,95%CI:1.004—1.1.007)、同期的周日照时间越长(RR=1.019,95%CI:1.017—1.020)和同期的周水汽压越大(RR=1.116,95%CI:1.108—1.123),手足口病发病风险越大,而同期的周平均气温越高(RR=0.835,95%CI:0.827—0.843)、同期的周平均气压越高(RR=0.918,95%CI:0.914—0.922)和同期的周总雨量越多(RR=0.998,95%CI:0.998—0.999),手足口病周发病风险越小。结论贺州市手足口病发病与气象因素关系密切,可以根据气象变化,提前做好手足口病防控应对。

Objective To explore the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-and-mouth disease(HFMD) in Hezhou city. Methods The incidence data of HFMD and meteorological information were collected from 2009 to 2014 in Hezhou. Spearman rank correlation was used to find out the lagphase and Multiple Poisson Regression Analysis were used to quantify the influence effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD. Results HFMD cases had occurred all year round,which reached the peaks in late Spring and early Summer and Autumn. The result of Multiple Poisson regression analysis shows that greater average wind speed in the three weeks prior(RR=1.163,95% CI:1.136-1.189), larger relative humidity in the 4 weeks prior(RR=1.006, 95% CI: 1.004-1.1.007), longer sunshine time(RR=1.019, 95% CI: 1.017-1.020) and higher vapor pressure(RR=1.116, 95% CI: 1.108-1.123) over the same period increased the risk of HFMD. However higher average weekly temperature(RR=0.835,95%CI:0.827-0.843), higher average weekly pressure(RR=0.918,95%CI:0.914-0.922) and more total amount of rainfall in the same period decreased the risk of HFMD.Conclusion Meteorological factors closely related with the incidence of HFMD in Hezhou city, It is significant to pay attention to meteorological factors change in advance for timely prevention and control of HFMD.