新常态下地方性政府债务安全边界研究——基于存量债务置换

Research on Security Boundary of Locality Government Debt under the New Normal State

债务置换启动后,地方政府所面临的短期偿债压力得到了很大程度的缓解,但作为地方政府债务管理的过度举措,债务置换并未从根本上改变地方政府长期积累的高负债僵局。在地方政府财政收支放缓、地方财政收支矛盾持续增大的背景下,地方政府的债务风险控制和限额管理显得日益重要。以辽宁省为例,基于改进的KMV模型对2016—2018年地方政府债券的违约风险进行了测度,并进一步预测地方政府债务置换的安全边界。结果表明,在违约概率为0.5%时,辽宁省未来三年需置换的债务额度至少应分别为当年到期的存量债务额度的85%、87%、89%。为了提升债务置换效用、及时化解债务风险,应控制债务置换规模、根据各地的实际情况进行地方债务发行的市场化调整以及提高定向债务置换比例。

The debt exchange have relieved short-term debt pressures faced by local governments to a great extent, but as an interim measure, debt replacement does not solve the problem of the high stock of local government debt fundamentally which accumulated for a long-term. Under the background of ＂’new,normal” which means local government revenue and expenditure continually slows down, expenditure growth rigidly and the gap expands, the problem about controlling the government debt and managing the debt quota have became increasingly important. This paper takes Liaoning Province as an example, using improved KMV model to measure the default risk of local government debt based on 2016 to 2018, and predict the safe margin of debt displacement of local government. The results show that when the probability of default is 0.5%, the proportion of the stock of debt required at least 85%, 87%, 89% to be replaced respectively in the next three years. Based on empirical results, in order to enhance the effectiveness of debt replacement and mitigate debt risk, the following measures should be taken： controlling the size of the debt exchange, keeping market-oriented adjustment of local debt according to the actual situation and improving the ratio of directional replacement.