1987–2013年江西省水土流失趋势及其社会经济驱动力分析

Temporal variation of soil and water loss and its social-economic driving forces in Jiangxi Province from 1987 to 2013

以江西省为研究区域,基于1987年、1996年、2000年和2013年的水土流失数据以及社会经济发展统计数据分析江西省1987—2013年的水土流失趋势,并探讨水土流失的社会驱动力。结果表明:1987—2013年江西省水土流失面积呈现逐步下降的趋势,水土流失恶化趋势得到遏制,生态环境逐步改善;相关分析表明,经济发展指标(国民生产总值(GDP)、农业GDP、农村居民纯收入和人均GDP)、人口指标(人口总量、人口密度和农村贫困人口)、农业耕作指标(耕地面积)均在一定程度上与水土流失相关,说明水土流失过程的社会驱动力较为复杂;但逐步回归分析表明,农村贫困人口、农业GDP、人均GDP、人口密度和农村居民收入水平是影响江西省水土流失的主要因素,特别是减少农村贫困人口和提高农村居民收入水平更是解决研究区域水土流失问题的关键。本研究受到数据获取的限制还有待深入研究,但研究结果仍可为本区域的水土流失防治提供一定依据和参考。

Nowadays, soil and water loss is associated with many environmental problems. There are some different driving forces among various regions for the process of soil and water loss. Especially, soil and water loss is one of serious ecological problems in Jiangxi Province. It is very useful to find the social-economic driving forces of soil and water loss in the study area. Based on the data of soil and water loss and the social-economic data of different years such as 1987, 1996, 2000, and 2013, the social-economic driving mechanism of soil and water loss was analyzed using different statistical methods. The result showed that the area of soil and water loss decreased gradually during the period from 1987 to 2013. Soil and water loss has been thoroughly under control;ecological conditions have been improved in the study area. Correlation analysis showed that soil and water loss was partly correlated with economic development indexes （such as gross domestic product,GDP）, agricultural GDP, GDP per capita, farmers＇ income）, population indexes （such as population, population density, rural poor population） and agriculture index （cultivated-land area）. It indicated that the social-economic driving mechanism of soil and water loss was very complicated. Moreover, multiple stepwise regression analysis showed that soil and water loss was mainly controlled by these social-economic factors such as rural poor population, agricultural GDP, GDP per capita, population density and farmers＇ income. Among these mentioned factors, rural poor population and farmers＇ income were two key factors that controlled the process of soil and water loss. Because of study material limitation, further study will be still needed. However, this research still could provide references and foundations for controlling soil and water loss in Jiangxi Province.