区域经济增长中贸易开放作用及空间差异分析——基于中国省级区域面板数据的分析

Analysis on the Role of Trade Openness in Regional Economic Growth and Spatial Difference——Based on the Analysis of China′s Provincial Panel Data

基于1978—2014年中国大陆31个省的省际数据构建了面板数据固定效应模型,对区域经济增长中贸易开放的作用大小和作用途径进行实证检验和估计。结果表明,贸易开放对区域经济增长通过促进综合要素生产率提升、促进资本和劳动效率提高等途径起到显著推动作用,反映了区域经济增长方式差异和转变。然而,从分时段样本分析来看,在改革开放后的一段时期中,贸易开放对经济增长的正向效应是比较显著和稳健的。而在1990—2014年这段历史时期中,贸易开放对经济增长的促进作用并不稳定,甚至还会在一定时期产生负向影响。从分区域分析来看,各地区经济发展水平和贸易开放程度呈现出明显的空间差异性和不平衡性,贸易开放对东部地区经济增长的促进明显高于中部地区和西部地区。对于贸易开放度较低的省份来说,其对经济增长的促进作用更加显著。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China's Mainland from 1978 to 2014, this paper constructs a fixed effect model, and estimates the impact of trade openness on regional economic growth by using the empirically tests. The results show that trade openness plays a significant role in promoting regional economic growth via promoting comprehensive factor productivity, improving the capital and labor efficiency and other kinds of means, which reflects the difference of regional economic growth patterns and changes. However, from the sample that classified by different period of time, the analysis shows that there exists a relatively significant and robust positive effect of trade openness on economic growth after the reform and opening up in China. While the effect is not steady during 1990 to 2014, even has a negative effect in a certain period of time. From the point of regional analysis,the level of regional economic development and trade openness is obviously spatial different and imbalance, the promoting effect of trade openness is significantly higher in eastern regions compared to the central region and the western region. As to the provinces with a low opening degree of trade,the promoting effect on economic growth is more prominent.